Service 11 - Advisory & Finance Operations
Budgeting & Forecasting.
Annual budgets, rolling forecasts, and scenario models built bottom-up from operational drivers you actually control - replacing spreadsheet politics with a defensible plan the board can trust.
What we do
Plans built on drivers,
not aspirations.
- Annual budget preparation Bottom-up annual budget - revenue, direct costs, operating expenses, capital spend - modelled from operational drivers and reconciled to strategic targets.
- Rolling 18-month forecast Rolling forecast updated monthly or quarterly - always 18 months visible, so leadership sees around the corner, not just to year-end.
- Scenario & sensitivity modelling Base, upside, and downside cases with explicit assumption changes - plus sensitivity to the two-or-three drivers that really move the outcome.
- Cash flow forecasting 13-week direct cash forecast for operational decisions, integrated with the P&L forecast for medium-term liquidity planning.
- Strategic 3-to-5-year plan Longer-horizon planning linking strategy to numbers - growth pace, margin targets, capital requirements, funding implications.
- Board pack financials Board-ready plan documents with clear executive narrative - not 50 tabs of Excel, not vague PowerPoint bullet points.
Why it matters
Most budgets don't survive first contact.
Budget-as-performance-review is common, budget-as-plan is rarer. Many Saudi businesses still run on annual budgets built in October, signed in November, filed in January, and quietly ignored by March - because the underlying assumptions were never realistic and there is no mechanism to update them as reality evolves. Meanwhile, the operational decisions the budget was supposed to guide - pricing, hiring, capex - get made on gut feel instead.
Good budgeting is driver-based and continually re-pointed at reality. A proper rolling forecast updates monthly and gives leadership a live view of where the year is heading - not a post-mortem in April. Good scenario work shows what happens if a key assumption breaks - so leadership can make the call before it does. Done right, planning is not an annual ritual; it is an ongoing management discipline.
Our approach
Four phases.
Driver-led, not top-down.
Discover
Sessions with your operational leaders - sales, operations, HR - to identify the real drivers of revenue, cost, and cash. These are the inputs the model is built on.
Model
A driver-based model in Excel your finance team can fully own - clean structure, clear flow, audit trail, scenario toggles, sensitivity analysis, fully documented.
Align
Board-level review sessions to challenge and align - not to rubber-stamp - the plan. The debate is what makes the budget credible.
Re-point
Monthly forecast refresh, driven by actuals and leadership input - so the plan stays live, not frozen at first signature.
Deliverables
What you receive.
Driver-based model
A fully-documented Excel model with inputs, drivers, outputs, scenarios, sensitivities - your finance team can own and maintain.
Annual budget
Board-approved budget document with P&L, balance sheet, cash flow, KPIs, and one-page executive narrative.
Rolling 18-month forecast
Monthly-refreshed forecast showing 18 months of P&L, balance sheet, and cash - always pointing forward.
Scenario pack
Three named scenarios (base, upside, downside) with the triggers that would move the business from one to another.
13-week cash forecast
Weekly-updated direct cash forecast for treasury decisions - receivables, payables, debt schedule, liquidity buffers.
Board narrative
Written plan narrative for your board pack - strategy, numbers, risks, assumptions - in a form the board can actually absorb.
Who this is for
Four profiles we serve best.
Growth-stage CFOs
Finance leaders in businesses scaling past SAR 100m annual revenue where intuition-based planning has hit its ceiling.
Capital-raising companies
Businesses preparing for a funding round, needing investor-grade financial models that survive due diligence.
Multi-business groups
Holding groups needing consistent planning discipline across subsidiaries for consolidated board oversight.
Post-strategy-refresh companies
Businesses emerging from a new strategic plan, needing numbers that translate strategy into measurable commitments.
Regulatory context
Where planning meets compliance.
CMA disclosure alignment
For listed companies, forecasts and guidance aligned with CMA's disclosure rules - no material inconsistency between internal plan and public communications.
SAMA capital & liquidity
For SAMA-regulated entities, financial planning aligned with prudential capital and liquidity requirements - so growth plans don't quietly breach regulatory limits.
ZATCA tax planning
Tax forecasts built into the budget - zakat, CIT, WHT, VAT timing - so cash and tax are planned together rather than surprising each other.
Lender covenant compliance
Covenant monitoring built into the forecast - DSCR, leverage ratios, minimum liquidity - so covenant breaches are seen in the model before they show up in actuals.
Related insights
From our desks.
Partner notes on budgeting and forecasting practice - driver design, scenario craft, rolling-forecast discipline.
Insights coming soon - a library of technical notes on financial planning practice is in preparation.
Budget season approaching?
Tell us about your current planning process, board rhythm, and any funding or strategy triggers ahead. A senior partner will respond within one working day.
Request a consultation